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Polls continue to show Meg Whitman’s momentum
November 20th, 2009, 1:43 pm · 53 Comments · posted by Martin Wisckol, Politics reporter
Updated Nov. 24 with reaction from OC Democratic Party Chairman Frank Barbaro.
A new Rasmussen Reports poll shows Republican Meg Whitman in a dead heat with Democrat Jerry Brown in the race for governor, a big swing from less than two months ago when Rasmussen showed Brown 9 percentage points ahead and this Field Poll showed him 20 points ahead.
The vagaries of polling methodologies likely have something to do with the differences, as they have in surveys concerning the GOP primary in the race (click here for a rundown and my analysis of those polls). But the trend in Whitman’s favor is giving the campaign something to crow about.
“This is more clear evidence that Californians are attracted to Meg’s focused vision for California,” wrote senior campaign advisor Jeff Randle in a “state of the race” memo sent out to the press today.
With this Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Poll earlier this month showing Whitman with a 21-point lead over Republican Tom Campbell, Irvine-based pollster Adam Probolsky said Whitman’s barrage of radio ads in October had given her the advantage. Previous polls had shown the two Republicans in a statistical dead heat. However, there were differences in poll methodology which also played into it, as discussed in the previously mentioned analysis.
But it’s unclear how big a roll methodology played in the differences between the Field and Rasmussen polls. Whitman outperformed her previous Rasmussen poll, as mentioned, but that previous poll had her nine percentage points ahead of Campbell a month before the Field Poll showed them in a dead heat.
The new Rasmussen poll shows 48 percent of voters with a favorable opinion of Brown and 41 percent unfavorable. The Field Poll showed 44 percent favorable and 29 percent unfavorable. Although Brown, in his current post as attorney general, got some bad press in the interim when an aide secretly recorded conversations with the media (apparently without Brown’s knowledge), it seems unlikely that would narrow his favorable differential from 15 points to 7 points.
The new Rasmussen poll shows Whitman at a 47 percent favorable rating, 37 percent unfavorable. The Field Poll had her at 18 favorable, 14 unfavorable. But like an L.A. Times/USC poll from earlier this month, the Field Poll found that nearly two-thirds of voters had no clear impression of any of the GOP candidates.
While the Field Poll had Brown ahead by 20 points in early October, some Democratic insiders admit the Field Poll is overstates the spread, and give Brown a 10-point edge.
Frank Barbaro, head of the county Democratic Party, said that Rasmussen often seems to favor GOP candidates.
“It doesn’t make any sense,” he said of the recent Rasmussen poll. “I wouldn’t call them if I wanted a reliable poll.”
The Rasmussen poll shows Brown with an 11-point lead over Steve Poizner and a 9-point lead over Campbell.
I asked Mark DiCamillo of the Field Poll about the discrepencies with the Rasmussen poll, and he said he hadn’t examined that poll closely enough to offer an analysis. I have a call in to the Rasmussen folks to see what their thoughts are on the difference. I’ll post that here when I hear back. )(As of Nov. 24, still no response from Rasmussen other than a somebody giving me somebody else number to call. That somebody else has not responded.)
More on the governor’s race:
Analysis of why the Probolsky and Field polls differ
Tom Campbell busts 25 political myths
GOP governor candidates tangle in Irvine debate
Jerry Brown shows his moderate side during O.C. visit
Gavin Newsom drops out of guv race
GOP governor candidates tangle in Irvine
Field Poll: Brown way out front in governor’s race
Columnist attacks Whitman’s budget math
My Q&A with Meg Whitman
My Q&A with Tom Campbell
My Q&A with Steve Poizner
My Q&A with Gavin Newsom
GOP candidate hopes to outrun the ghost of voting past
Democrats in background of 3 GOP governor candidates
Governor candidates wary of citizens’ power
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DENA BUNIS, Washington bureau chief, 202-628-6381 or dbunis@ocregister.com
BRIAN JOSEPH, Sacramento correspondent, 916-449-6046 or bjoseph@ocregister.com
JENNIFER MUIR, County government reporter, 714-796-7813 or jmuir@ocregister.com
JOEL WALSH, Washington bureau intern, 202-628-6381 or jwalsh@ocregister.com
MARTIN WISCKOL, Politics reporter, 714-285-2867 or mwisckol@ocregister.com twitter.com/MartinWisckol
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I’m surprised someone could get this close to Brown in the polls this far away from the election. The cool aid drinkers in both parties will probably vote for their party no matter who it is, but I think this is saying that the average Californian has had it with career politicians.
I wouldn’t take this article too seriously until I could see all the major polls. Rasmussen is demonstrably favorable toward Republicans no matter what the facts are, so only taking his poll into account while ignoring the others says a lot about The Register being just a wee bit biased.
Sure Rasmussen is biased towards the Republicans….
it is the ONLY poll that matters in this country.
Perhaps you would prefer one from msnbc or cnn???
Realist - Not sure I know what you’re talking about. I mentioned three other polls in this article, including a link in the very first sentence to the Field Poll, which has very different results. And I tried to make it clear that I was a bit puzzled by the huge swing. Perhaps you didn’t read what I actually wrote before calling me biased?
I got news for you…The OCR has been “just a wee bit biased” since 1935!
Get real! Rasmussen predicted the Obama win last year well within the margin of error.
I don’t think you are biased Martin - I know you to be very fair ! But Meg Whitman has NO chance of beating Brown ! zero !! I hear her ads on KNX all the time - they are so generalized ? Of course everyone wants everything to be perfect blah blah blah — she doesn’t speak in specifics - Brown has the Democratic vote ( majority) and the law enforcement vote - he is a different man from when he was “Governor Moonbeam” - he is a really strong law and order candidate - I’m pretty sure Whitman will drop out of the race - it’s a losing cause -
I’ve heard her ads, but never heard her say she was anti-law enforcement. Meg is for the taxpayers of California who will maybe still be the the majority when election time rolls around.
question and Bob: Does it really matter WHO the governor is as long as we have a Democrat majority in Sacramento? Look what happened to Mr. RINO, Schwarzenegger. It’ll be a different day but business as usual no matter who wins. “Moonbeam” has changed? Good luck with that, but the alternative is a looney-greenie, maybe even worse.
Brown was one of the worst governors the State of California ever had. We will not forget that charade and I assure whoever runs against will point out just what a nut case he is and how dishonest he is. Brown is one of the few that would be worst than Arnold
Poizner would be a better governor than Whitman. At least he has a lot of facts and figures to back up his campaign claims. Meg Whitman has nothing. I think all she would do is auction us off on Ebay.
Brown has the Democratic vote ( majority) and the law enforcement vote - he is a different man from when he was “Governor Moonbeam” - he is a really strong law and order candidate - I’m pretty sure Whitman will drop out of the race - it’s a losing cause
========================
Whitman is NOT dropping out and if you think that is going to happen you’re a looney tune.
Bown may or may not have the “law and order” vote. I am SURE Brown will crack down on the public employee unions, the BIGGEST scammers from that group being “law enforcement” .
But if Whitman wants to win she better do MUCH more than throw millions into advertising-can Meg say “Al Checkki”???
If Jerry Brown was doing his job right now as the Attorney General he would have already started investigating ACORN…but then that’s his voting base isn’t it?
I believe they have ACORN workers in San Diego,on tape, saying “don’t worry about an investigation…Jerry Brown’s on our side” can someone post that link for me…
So what makes anyone think he’ll do the job as Governor?
Jerry Moonbeam Brown already had his shot. Nobody should get a redo.
Of course no such tape exists. The young GOP couple bagged their prey on the east coast but most either played along with the joke or even called the police on them. Time for a new conspiracy theory.
Wish we could do away with the two party system and let in debate from other parties . . . it’s time to hear from the Libertarians.
LIBERTARIAN
BECAUSE NOT EVERYONE CAN BE ON WELFARE.
Once people realize how much they’d be paying in property taxes if Brown had his way, he will fade in the polls. Brown is a moderate Dem but still believes Californians should pay politicians for the priviledge of living in the State.
>>714native says:
November 20, 2009 at 7:29 pmLIBERTARIAN
BECAUSE NOT EVERYONE CAN BE ON WELFARE.<<
Somebody should sue the State for violating the 14th ammendment by not giving everybody a welfare check.
I think Whitman has the turkey neck vote wrapped up.
I know why Meg Whitman’s poll ratings have skyrocketed. She is an intelligent, dynamic speaker with a powerful message. She has finances to get that message out, and a campaign that is aggressive. She isn’t a “career politician”, but has impressive credentials in what Ca. needs: business & management. In a matter of months I have gone from giving her a “D” rating to a “B”. She has the most important qualifications for this state’s needs right now.
She is Arnold with a dress, Vote NO on MEG.
Meg Whitman has brains and common sense. Both Democrats and Republicans like her, because she is positive, respectable, and not a career politician.
Dynamic??? are you serious, she comes across like a simplistic party hack. No one had heard of her before Ebay, and all that created was the world’s largest fencing operation. She doesn’t vote, and knows nothing about education. Just because she has lots of money to pour into her campaign doesn’t make her a good candidate.
I would prefer my business leaders to stay in business. Government is not a business and cannot be run like one. There is no initiative process restricting the actions of a corporate board, they don’t have to negotiate with an independently elected legislature that probably doesn’t want the same things. Those are different skill sets. We constantly get novice politicians who say they are going to bring business sense into government and then they can’t because it is a fundamentally different structure. They get in there, get frustrated, disappoint, and then we are stuck in the same situation. At least Poizner has some governmental experience before trying to become governor. Same with Campbell and Brown. Whitman will be in way over her head by trying to jump in at the top instead of learning. It will be a wasted few years if she ends up getting elected. Kind of like with Arnold having no experience and thinking he could run the government like one of his businesses.
bjo says:
I know why Meg Whitman’s poll ratings have skyrocketed. She is an intelligent, dynamic speaker with a powerful message. She has finances to get that message out, and a campaign that is aggressive. She isn’t a “career politician”, but has impressive credentials in what Ca. needs: business & management. In a matter of months I have gone from giving her a “D” rating to a “B”. She has the most important qualifications for this state’s needs right now.
==================
Everything you listed abovr they said about “Al Checkki” and Anrold-one came in third and the other turned out to be a Kitty in a lion outfit.
Whitman has “some” credentials however:
1) she has failed in basic civic responsibility to vote. It’s not forgivable.
2) She may be a dynamic speaker and she may have money but that doesn’t translate into a good Governor. Arnie has proven that.
3) She has business & management experience but it doesn’t mean she was good at it. Being a CEO does not mean you have great leadership qualities. Whoever wins will have to take a very divided state politically and pull them together. I don’t see Whitman having that ability.
4) Politics is a huge part of business & management. In fact, Whitman’s political game is that she was a CEO of E-bay. Rising to the top and staying at the top of any major organization is being a “career politician.”
5) I’ve gone from rating her a D to an all time F. Poizner is a D and I am seriously looking at Campbell.
Does this alarm anyone?
http://www.onecitizenspeaking.com/2009/09/is-meg-whitman-another-manchurian-candidate.html
“…..Meg Whitman(’s) …………… openly and effusively praised Van Jones, a radical activist who was forced to resign from the Obama Administration for his prior radical utterances that called into question his impartiality and ability to execute the duties of his office without invoking a radical agenda.
“I’m a huge fan of his. He is very bright, very articulate, very passionate. I think he is exactly right.’”
yes, ed. whitman also contributed to Babs Boxer’s last election. she’s a RINO. wake up, voters!
Come on, folks. Settle down. Whitman is $loaded$. She’s buying off these pollsters in the early rounds to build a false hope. If she ever made it to Sacramento she’d be on somebody’s leash and chain within a month of moving into the sacramento mansion. Count on it. Go with Brown. He’s really no better than the rest but he’s an old man and I think he will try and do the right thing since his political career is over after 4 years in Sacramento. He’s tired of kissing behind and will let his conscience be his guide. Whitman is all about money, power and building more opportunity for herself. She cares nothing about you. See it for what it is.
Didn’t this same polling group have McCain winning last November?
25 years of controlling the state legislature and The dems have done a horrible job in California . The state has one of the highest jobless rates in the U.S., is financially broke, criminals are being released early from jail sentences, and illegals are straining school systems, and public services. What a bunch of incompetants - time for a change.
The governor is a republican. Does anybody really think that the legislature runs the state? Go back to school, and learn about your government. In particular, the legislature in this state is very weak, and constrained on multiple levels.
Iwps: He IS????? Holy cow–that’s news to me!!! Yes, the legislature DOES run the state when they control the governor.
Why is a republican conservative running for governor? According to them, it is a weak and useless office — the real power is in the hands of the legislature.
The california dem party is in shambles - even Bill Lockyer - a dem leader in the state admits that the party “stinks”.
Meg Whitman sounds like a leader, not a clown like the rest .Enough with the people that have severly hurt the state. Jerry Brown what a joke.
Whitman is not the person to run Calif!
libertarians are a ploy by the dems to siphon away republican votes.
WHAT?????
The Democrats and Republicans have urinated all over the Constitution.
Don’t confuse the LIBERTARIANS for some worthless liberal welfare collectors…
Caution here. Rasmussen Reports Polls are known to lean heavily towards the right. Therefore, the poll most likely reflects that point of view than several polls that would show an average.
I seriously doubt that Whimtman has come that close. Most polls show she is not even close. She does rank highest among GOP candidates.
Here lack of voting in US elections is her biggest failure.
Debbie you could not be more wrong about the way Rasmussen Polls. You are probably confused by Wolf Blitzer or Payton Manning…..I mean rachel Madow. But ya know what never mind…..your right. Whitman is way behind Moonbeam so don’t even bother to vote. He has it in the bag . Just stay home and get ready for another round of your HOPE and CHANGE.
Rasmussen poll called the 08 Presidential election exactly; better than the others.
She should be given a star for not voting in the past state and national elections. What a bunch of losers.
Maybe people heard the audio released by the Acorn executive where he has on tape the Attorney General’s office of California saying that that office will be going after the two people who filmed the Acorn nuts instead of the nuts themselves. How dare you film someone committing a crime.
whatever debbie - the mudslinging is a very predictable tactic the dems will use in upcoming elections - California dems certainly can’t run on their records - so they will smear their opponent instead.
You gotta love those GOP supporters who call Obama an elitist, and then they back a woman like Whitman. Princeton, Harvard, and a billionaire.
If you are middle-class or working-class or poor, don’t vote for Whitman. She is all about supporting the rich and super-rich in this country. Your pay raises and your benefits have been drawn-down so that CEOs and corporate execs and fat-cats like Whitman (and Carly Fiorina) can have MORE. AND YOU GET LESS.
Where you one of the folks who was making money on eBay BEFORE Whitman hiked the fees? And then you couldn’t make money after that? Remember that? More for Meg, less for you.
She will see to it that special interests get the leg-up here in California. She will tell you that it is bringing business back to California, but she will continue the trend of giving tax breaks and tax money to the rich while we are stuck with lower wages, fewer benefits, higher costs, and less help from the state.
Do not vote corporate types into government. We need to reverse the trend of corporate-government dominance over the middle and working classes.
Mike,
I read all your accusations on who is the problem. Now can you tell me who is the solution. Can you tell me what all the non-corporate folks will do for me. Tell me who is on my side. I can’t wait to hear who you think is the better answer to this problem. O.K. I’m ready…….show me the light.
Herein lies the problem. We always let these non-native carpetbaggers ruin our state. Can we not get someone who was born here for crissakes to run for Governor?
No way - nietszche - this voter personally doesn’t care if the new legislature were collectively born on Mars - as long as they can legislate better than the current regime - which is failing miserably - since the vast majority of them are democrats - and have been for the past 25 years - the onus falls on them - birthplace has nothing to do with it.
dingo~~~
Yep, I really don’t have that trust in each of the candidates. At least, Gavin Newsom dropped out. He’s the worst of the bunch. But if I have to choose, I’ll choose either Steve Poizner or Meg Whitman. If either of them drops out, I’ll vote for the other. I don’t wanna vote for a career politician like Jerry Brown to be our next governor. When he was governor, there were no term limits and there was no 2/3rds majority rule and so taxes kept increasing under his watch. When Prop. 13 was finally put on the ballot, Jerry Brown railed against it. Besides, there’s nobody clamoring for the return of the Jerry Brown governorship. The nostalgia just isn’t there.
Here’s a little water cooler fact. Just before Brown took over in the late 70’s California had the six wealthiest econonmy in the world. We had somewhere around 12 billion in surplus money. Yeah you read that right. A rainy day fund that was unheard of.
Brown and the rest of liberal democrats saw that as there own pesonal social program piggy bank. Follow the start of social welfare programs in this state and you will find they started around 1980-82.
Doesn’t matter who you vote for governor, as long as the legislature is controlled by the same party that has controlled it for decades, the state will continue to be flushed down the toilet.
America is doomed. Jerry Moonbeam tried his left-wing Luddite nonsense decades ago. He defunded freeway construction projects, claiming “We’ve got to find a better way.” Here we are in 2009.
What IS that “better way” - anyone, anyone… anyone?
Liberals are destroying America and under Obama, at a vastly accelerated pace. Leftist Brown will no doubt win the governorship.
After all, look at the socialist in the White House.
I came here 10yrs ago dem gov s n power trffc was so bad now yu can’t hide thrs an imprvment,with a lot of problm here n cal,we need somone wh’s hve a new idea with exprince arnd the clobe like MEG she might cret more jobs,meg 4 governor.