Poll: Whitman leads Republican race for governor

November 5th, 2009, 11:00 am · 9 Comments · posted by Martin Wisckol, Politics reporter

Updated with comments from pollsters Adam Probolsky and the Field Poll’s Mark DiCamillo, and a correction on the Field Poll methodology.

The vagaries of political polling are raising their ugly heads, as a new survey is showing Meg Whitman with the support of 34 percent of Republican and decline-to-state voters in the race to be the GOP’s nominee for governor. Tom Campbell is at 12.5 percent and Steve Poizner, 5.5 percent, according to this poll by Capitol Weekly/Probolsky.

Less than four weeks earlier, a Field Poll of Republican voters put Whitman at 22 percent, Campbell at 20 percent, and Poizner at 9 percent. The Probolsky poll surveyed 750 registered voters and lists a margin of error of 3.7 percent. The Field Poll talked to 1,005 registered voters, and yet listed a larger margin of error, 4.5 percent.

It seems unlikely to me that Whitman went from a statistical dead heat with Campbell to a nearly 3-1 lead in less than a month, but discussion with the pollsters make the big swing a little more understandable. A Field Poll in March showed similar results to its most recent survey (that one had Whitman at 21 percent, Campbell at 18 percent and Poizner at 7 percent).

Pollster Adam Probolsky, whose own poll showed the two close in Mayr, attributed much of the swing largely to Whitman’s far greater outlay of campaign funds.

“She’s spent $20 million on radio ads and she’s getting treated like a rock star, and the others haven’t been spending anything,” Probolsky said.

The Field Poll’s Mark DiCamillo said the different polling methodologies may have also played a part, since he polled registered voters while Probolsky focused on registered voters who were likely to actually cast ballots.

“While I do think the Whitman’s recent advertising has been having some effect and is responsible for her improved standing in the Probolsky poll, there is also a methodological difference between the two polls that could also be having an effect,” DiCamillo wrote me in an email. “Our poll was conducted among all registered voters whereas it is our understanding that Probolsky’s was conducted among likely voters.

“This difference typically has its largest impact on the age of voters in the sample. For example in our survey 15% of Republican primary voters were age 18-34, whereas in the Probolsky poll just 5% were. Our poll report noted that Campbell’s strongest support in the GOP primary came from younger voters. So, the fact that Probolsky’s sample has fewer of them would tend to reduce Campbell’s support his poll.”

In this space, I’d previously written that Probolsky included decline-to-state voters in his GOP polling, while Field Poll did not. I’ve since been corrected by the DiCamillo - in fact, both polls asked DTS voters which party they expected to vote for in the primary, and tallied likely GOP voters in that primary category.

O.C. Registrar of Voters Neal Kelley says the parties have the choice of whether to allow DTS voters to participate in their primaries, and none have made that decision yet. In the 2006 gubernatorial primary, Republicans, Democrats and American Independents all allow DTS voters to participate in their races, Kelley said.

More on the the governor’s race:
Tom Campbell busts 25 political myths
GOP governor candidates tangle in Irvine debate
Jerry Brown shows his moderate side during O.C. visit
Gavin Newsom drops out of guv race
GOP governor candidates tangle in Irvine
Field Poll: Brown way out front in governor’s race
Columnist attacks Whitman’s budget math
My Q&A with Meg Whitman
My Q&A with Tom Campbell
My Q&A with Steve Poizner
My Q&A with Gavin Newsom
GOP candidate hopes to outrun the ghost of voting past
Democrats in background of 3 GOP governor candidates
Governor candidates wary of citizens’ power

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ocobserver says:

November 5, 2009 at 11:46 am

No surprise. Ms. Moneybags holds the biggest purse strings. One could be a complete slobbering fool and go to the head of the pack if he or she were rich enough. In america you can practically buy anything. especially a political seat in gobblement. But I don’t think she’s rich enough to beat moonbeam. He’s a crafty old fox with lots of experience. He knows all the twists and turn and how to run an effective campaign. Whitman is just a rich old woman who wants to buy power. I didn’t like the young moonbeam. But as old as he is now I just might give him my vote. He’s lived and learned from his past mistakes. And he’s old enough not to be worried about stepping on toes. He’s got nothing to prove to anyone at this point in his life. Of the choices I see, he’s the only one who provides hope. Not based on his philosophies, but simply by virtue of his age and not giving a poop anymore about what anyone thinks.

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lindav123 says:

November 5, 2009 at 11:49 am

I totally understand why Campbells numbers have gone down.
As soon as I read that he had added an amendment to the oversight of the financing companies EXCLUDING the auto dealerships that he makes money from, my mind was made up to vote for Whitman. I am so tired of politicians always making sure to feather their own nests.

OCNative says:

November 9, 2009 at 11:17 am

Um, I think you are confusing Congressman John Campbell with former Congressman Tom Campbell. John is a car dealer while Tom is a college professor.

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PC Load Letter says:

November 5, 2009 at 12:19 pm

Is this the woman who sold me a $10 printer but then charged $50 for a few ounces of ink?

ocobserver says:

November 5, 2009 at 1:54 pm

Yep. And she’s the same one who’s going to sell you a bill of goods prior to the election. Just up to you whether you buy it or not.

Whitman is an opportunist. She has been self-admittedly a-political all of her adult years. Now all the sudden she wants to lead you out of a government crisis??? READ BETWEEN THE LINES!!! BEWARE!!!!

She is using YOU as a stepping stone!

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OCNative says:

November 9, 2009 at 11:18 am

No, I think you’re confusing eBay’s Meg Whitman with HP’s Carly Fiorina.

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Debbie says:

November 5, 2009 at 4:36 pm

Well if the poll is correct she may win the Republican primary but I don’t seriously think she will win the primary or Governor.

Republican’s, Democrates, and Independents will have major issues with her for 3 reasons:

1. She has gone on record saying she didn’t vote for years because she was busy raising children. To not vote is unexcusable and unacceptable. Period. For the millions of people in the state who have or are raising their children just can’t accept her lax involvement.

2. She really wasn’t that great at Ebay

3. Her gross spending to win the election is a major turn-off for the majority.

belly laugher says:

November 5, 2009 at 7:38 pm

WHITMAN IS JUST ANOTHER RINO…JUST LIKE ARNOLD

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OC4truth says:

November 20, 2009 at 10:39 pm

Well, I’d appreciate more info on where each one stands on different issues. I really don’t know.

I know that Poizner had innovated in the Dept of ins moving it to paperless licensing and actually being able to cut licensing fees! So the fact that he has actually been able to make his dept more efficient sure says something. We need more of actual cutting by working more efficiently. Many talk about it–he has done something already.

But I’d like to know more of where each of them stand on issues. I’m skeptical like others of Meg Whitman not bothering to vote. The rest of us are busy also but do manage to research issues and vote and least for most of us. I don’t know why I should be expected to vote for someone who just recently decided to register at all and then even more recently decided to register as a Republican.

And this will likely be a big issue in the general election if she should win the primary.

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